Law Commentary - California Edition
Tit for Tat as Ontario Premier Threatens to Cut Off Energy Exports to U.S. if President Trump Activates Proposed Tariffs
When President Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2024, the U.S. may face a chill sent by Ontario over the expected tariffs against Canada.
In response to Trump’s vow to set tariffs for all products from Mexico, Canada and China, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the province will retaliate by cutting off the energy exports that supply about 66 percent of U.S. energy. Mr. Ford made his announcement after a meeting with all of Canada’s provincial premiers. Ontario is the most populated province in Canada, accounting for nearly 40% of the country’s population.
Doug Ford issued the warning after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s meeting with Canada’s provincial premiers on Parliament Hill last Wednesday.
“We will go to the extent of cutting off their energy, going down to Michigan, going down to New York State and over to Wisconsin,” said Premier Ford. “I don’t want this to happen, but my number one job is to protect Ontarians and Canadians as a whole,” Ford said after the meeting. He continued, “We need to be ready. We need to be ready to fight. This fight is coming 100 percent on Jan. 20th or Jan. 21.”
Despite Canada’s official data showing that contrary to what President Trump claims, the country has a negligible amount of fentanyl and the trafficking of people across their southern border to the U.S., Trump said he will institute the tariffs on the first or second day of his new presidency.
Beyond the expected tariffs that will be imposed against Canada, China, and Mexico, the incoming president has publicly said on social media that Prime Minister Trudeau is the “governor” of the “51st” American state.
If Premier Ford activates his threat and stops exporting energy and products to the U.S., the damage will be daunting. Currently, Canada exports more crude oil than other country to the U.S. In fact, Canadian exports add up to about 60 percent of the U.S. energy imports.
The energy products exported to the U.S. from Canada account for 97 percent of all of Canada’s crude oil exports.
Above and beyond Premier Ford’s vow to cut off the crude oil exports to America, he added that his government is “making a list” of all the products that will no longer be shipped to America if the new tariffs are activated by the Trump administration.
Another massive upheaval regarding imports to the U.S. is expected from Mexico, where the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is up for renewal in 2026, during Trump’s term.
Historically, tariffs will increase prices and decrease trade, as compared to an open trading system. Canada, only a few years ago, also retaliated when the U.S. imposed tariffs. In Trump’s first presidency, he imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum exports, with Canada retaliating with tariffs on Wisconsin-based whisky and yogurt products.
Due to the expected U.S. tariffs imposed against Canada, analysts predict that U.S. gas prices may rise from 30-40 cents per gallon, with a possible higher cost of 70 cents per gallon.
In 2023, Ontario also directly supplied electricity to 1.5 million U.S. homes and is a major exporter of power to Michigan, Minnesota and New York.
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